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Lowest Trading Volume Month since Year 1999!!

2010-08-30T22:30:00.000-05:00

Market cannot continue last friday bullishness!! Also, we are on record lowest trading volume month since year 1999!! Where are our traders gone?? Well, I did not update since 8/13 because as you all can see market has been going down!! I am very correct!! I aint bullish tomorrow either and we will see.

Hindenburg Omen Chart from other resouce!!

2010-08-13T08:58:00.002-05:00

Now, every reader has more clear visualization on when we would expect on the market soon!! Your decision call now.

What is a Hindenburg Omen?

2010-08-12T22:36:00.002-05:00

Please use google search to find "What is a Hindenburg Omen?" This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 22 years.

Believe it or not is up to you!! However, I point it out now as of 8/12/2010. Time will prove this statement correct again or not! Watch out as I said it two days early, fresh new year lows will come soon!!

Uncharted Territory!!

2010-08-11T14:52:00.003-05:00

According to prize winning economist Robert Shiller there is now a 50-50 chance of a double dip recession. However, We probably not even left off the first one by my opinion.

Printing money will not help recession. As the time proved it since Washington did it about one and half years ago. Look at what happened now. Now, FOMC decide to print more $$$.

Now, I know for sure market is very focus and follow corporate earning but it surely is going down from now. And, the market hates uncertainty which the market is doing it in this stage. Final, there is no investors left in the market, just traders, and when they all decide to run, watch out below folks!!

Bond Market 10 Year Treasury !!

2010-08-11T14:10:00.002-05:00

This is one piece of information why I keep bearish bias. Ask yourself question, what if the rate keep going down? Does it mean double dip recession coming? I guess you can determine the answer.

Ah Oh? Fed does pushing QE 1.5 or 2.0 ?!!

2010-08-10T23:06:00.002-05:00

Now, FOMC stated they are doing kind of QE 2.0 version. I do expect market has reached the end of recent rally and it is about to turn around and do its correction since April of this year. Watch out new closing lows for market soon!!

Pivot Point Reversal Day!!

2010-08-06T09:16:00.004-05:00

I make this early chart pattern that will likely to preform. It is not even over 9:30am central time currently. However, if market is going to make fresh new intra-day low and it most likely today will be key reversal day for recent intermediate level highs. Let's see and I will write more later.

Higher highs coming?!

2010-08-03T21:41:00.002-05:00

Market was taking a break after strong rally yesterday! As seen above, market has built a rising wedge pattern. I do expect market will likely turn around on this friday and will start new trend. It is because it is quiet overbought now and market breadth is little too strong.

GDP figure tomorrow??!

2010-07-29T22:14:00.001-05:00

Market has performed not bad lately. However, we have seen two day in a row with reversal bearish candle signal. Tomorrow, second quarter GDP estimate will be announced and will this be surprise for Bulls or Bears can take it breakdown 10400 in closing basis?

200MA has reached!! What's next?!

2010-07-26T22:40:00.001-05:00

Market has been performed strong and out of my expectation. However, it has reached 200MA. Need to see follow thru action.

Bearish Biased about market direction!!

2010-07-21T22:40:00.002-05:00

If SPX break below Tuesday’s close then I can assure market will retesting lows and more than likely breaking yearly lows. Looking at the chart above, I need to see follow up action to confirm more downward action. If not, market can open gap up and fill the gap, then rebound to new highs. We will see.

What a perfect down channel!!

2010-07-18T22:03:00.002-05:00

Nothing more be needed to say! Just look above chart and you tell me what market direction will go form here!!

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2010-07-15T22:14:00.002-05:00

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Time for Market Reversal?!!

2010-07-14T21:36:00.002-05:00

Look like today is an indecision candle pattern or an inside Doji. However, it just formed right in the territory down trend line as well as MA200. Also, the other chart is showing bearish bias for market to turn from bullish to bearish. We will see. By the way, this friday is option expiration.

Bigger picture view of SPX!!

2010-07-14T08:50:00.001-05:00

Now, strong resistance is head on. Will market correct here? We will see.

What a relief rebound!!

2010-07-07T22:34:00.003-05:00

I do expect a relief oversold rebound but not in this strength. Well, let see if the bulls still have more gas to propel. We will see!

Market in pending direction!!

2010-07-06T21:35:00.002-05:00

Post July 4th holiday trading day was looking very promising at morning trading hours. As I said previously, market did oversold rebound and break into 9800s in DOW and traded above 1040 in S&P morning section. However, short sellers were taking control on afternoon. Luckily, they short covering a bit just before market closed! Well, today is doji star that need further action to determine the strength of covering. But, I am more bearish and guess we will see fresh new low tomorrow!

Death Cross Moving Average Appear!!

2010-07-05T19:50:00.002-05:00

Not much to say!! Technically, markets are very bearish. However, I do expect very short term rebound to test resistance 1040 on S&P or around 9800s for DOW!!

What a joke of $7billion cut by House!!

2010-07-01T22:26:00.002-05:00

I laugh and I angry about how we have our government. Today, Democrats controlling the House approved a plan Thursday to cut $7 billion from President Barack Obama's budget request for foreign aid and the operational budgets for Cabinet agencies.

My goodness!! Our nation deficit is 13 Trillion and still in ticking up rapidly. They just approve a tiny mini $7billion cut. &^%%$#. Well, like every American like to say "God Bless America!"

Prepare for tomorrow NFP number??!

2010-07-01T22:05:00.002-05:00

Technically, today market formed hammer end this downleg in good action. However, we need to see tomorrow action to confirm. The Non-farm payroll number is very important to affect market direction tomorrow. I like to see if market open big gap down, market can have oversold rebound. Anyway, let's see. By the way, the trend is still down. I do expect there will be second down leg afterward.

Classic Head & Shoulder Pattern Confirmed!!!

2010-06-30T22:12:00.004-05:00

Another down day as I expected!! Now, classic well known Bearish Head & Shoulder Pattern is confirmed!! Also, Dow theorists do confirm Dow Bear Market has started too. What do you think that our nation economy is heading the right way??! I am very bearish as the expected bearish pattern played out now. As the market has shown it's hand and it is on the way to DOWN. Good luck to everyone still in pretend bullish market mood!!

Official a Dow Theory sell signal!!

2010-06-30T17:27:00.002-05:00

It is now official Bear Market!! Let's read the following reading from Marketwatch:

At least according to some interpretations of the venerable Dow Theory, a bear-market signal was generated at Wednesday's close, when both the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 9,774, -96.28, -0.98%) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:djt (DJT 4,008, -33.65, -0.83%) closed below their previous correction lows of early June.

This interpretation appears to be the one favored by two of the Dow Theorists tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest: Jack Schannep, from TheDowTheory.com, and Richard Moroney, of Dow Theory Forecasts.

The third Dow Theorist that the Hulbert Financial Digest identified as having already turned bearish, and so today's action is mere confirmation of that bearish trend. He is Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters.

In addition to previously concluding that the Dow Theory was bearish, Russell also has indicated that he would view a Dow close below 9,800 as being bearish according to another technical analysis formation: the so-called head and shoulders. That occurred Wednesday, of course, with the Dow closing at the 9,774 level.

Earlier this week, Russell wrote that the breaking of the head-and-shoulders formation would have very bearish consequences: "All previous plans, scenarios and strategies will hit a stone wall. Wall Street and public sentiment will turn black-bearish. Consumers will head for the storm cellars, and, once in, they'll shut the door above them and lock it."

My comment: I have successfully call the top of recent market by early April. Now, it is officially Bear Market!! Be careful, folks!!

Shanghai Composite at lowest level in 14 months!!

2010-06-29T22:47:00.002-05:00

For folks who bullshit about China's economy is booming, please look at above chart and think again!! For a child in age 3, he/she can tell you the chart is going down!! If one nation economy is growing strong, why stock market indexe is not trading upward?? Quit being expert to make excuse yourself as a financial expert that keep telling investors that China is in real good shape and will carry whole world out of this past recession. You all do not have any credit to make this comment. Read again on the above chart. Isn't that call Bear Market??

Spain & Greece will default!!

2010-06-29T22:36:00.002-05:00

Let's read some brief posting by Wall Street Journal:

The European Central Bank is scrambling to reassure markets that Thursday's expiration of a €442 billion ($547.46 billion) bank-lending program won't destabilize the financial system, even as banks across the region remain wary of lending to one another.

The ECB introduced the 12-month lending facility last summer to encourage private-sector lending and ensure adequate liquidity within the 16-member currency bloc. Since then, the program, which represents more than half the ECB's liquidity operations, has become a lifeline to banks in Greece, Spain and other countries hit by the region's debt crisis.

The cost of borrowing euros in the interbank market rose to an eight-month high Monday, as banks prepared for the one-year loan's expiration. The euro slid on worries that repayment will expose Europe's financial system to new threats. Yields on German bunds, seen as a haven, fell.

Some investors worry that vulnerable euro-area banks, unable to borrow in the interbank market, could have difficulty replacing that funding, despite repeated assurances from the ECB that it will provide funds on similar terms, albeit for only three months, beginning Wednesday.

"We are confident that this very large financial transaction can take place without disruptions," ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said Friday.

Ummmm!! Then, enjoy reading more on following from Financial Time:

Spanish banks have been lobbying the European Central Bank to act to ease the systemic fallout from the expiry of a €442bn ($542bn) funding programme this week, accusing the central bank of “absurd” behaviour in not renewing the scheme.

One senior bank executive said: “Any central bank has to have the obligation to supply liquidity. But this is not the policy of the ECB. We are fighting them every day on this. It’s absurd.”

Another top director said: “The ECB’s policy is that they don’t want to provide maturity of more than three months. But they have to adapt.”

A special offer of six-day liquidity will tide banks over until the following week’s regular offer of seven-day funds. On Wednesday, the ECB will also be offering unlimited three month liquidity, and further offers of three-month liquidity will keep banks going until at least the end of the year.

“The system is just not working,” agrees Simon Samuels, banks analyst at Barclays Capital in London. “We’re approaching the third year of liquidity support and still the market cannot survive unaided.”

Now, I have question to ask "How much longer Greece and Spain will default?" Who is going to be bullish about European economy as well as our nation one?? The worst has not come yet, folks, beware and be prepared yourself the next crisis.

S&P closed in year new low!!

2010-06-29T22:08:00.002-05:00

I am just coming back for my weekend vacation away from Chicago.First of all!! Have any of you did follow my suggestion on thread post last Thursday?? Here you go this heavy selling day. Do you now understand why I can tell days ahead for this bearish event plays out this week? Folks, I am very very good at technical chart analysis and market prediction as time goes on when you keep reading my 488trade blog here. I am sure you can find it very valuable to help position and trade the market trend by following my thoughtful analysis here. Now, just read the above two charts to get information for tonight. I tell you this downtrend leg target would be around 995-1000 in order to have more effective technical rebound. However, always remember"When market is up, you must think about downside risk and also the verse vice"

More selling coming!!

2010-06-24T22:35:00.003-05:00

Market has performed continuously weakness today as it broke yesterday low. I here urge everyone to do any hedging on your long positions. Because market can free fall from here real quick and fast, especially once it breaks 9800 level again on DOW. I do anticipating a break of 2010 low!! However, if tomorrow market try open significant lower, it may have technical oversold bounce but I do not give too much confidence on the strength the market rebound since it is last trading day of the week.

Still no decision about the short term trend??!

2010-06-24T00:21:00.002-05:00

As expected Fed stated same action of last meeting, no major change in their wording. However, it is less bullish. Major stock market formed undecided action today. However, it gives us more hint on coming direction. Lets see!!

FOMC decision tomorrow!!

2010-06-22T22:13:00.002-05:00

Let's keep in short. Read the chart above! I expect there is no interest rate adjustment until election November this year for Fed.

Bulls alive at least in short term!!

2010-06-15T22:10:00.004-05:00

Due to the strong too bullish market breath today, I expect market would pull back for some. However, I do anticipate market will touch above 10600 for Dow in coming days before the next trend changing zone. We will see.

Reversal right at strong resistance!!

2010-06-14T23:22:00.002-05:00

The Dow failed to close above its 200MA which is the trend changing level I have been talking about. A break above the high of today and I will be bullish, break below and I will be bearish. I do expecting big move coming very soon. Maybe tomorrow?!

Laughing to Obama's deficit reduction commission run out of $$$$

2010-06-13T14:02:00.002-05:00

Folks, let's read this week the most funniest news headline about our nation.

Deficit Reduction Commission Seeks Budget

Today’s Someone Left the Irony On Award goes to the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, better known as the Deficit Commission. Barack Obama created the panel ostensibly to reach some kind of bipartisan consensus on reducing the federal deficit; a better title may have been the Accountability Avoidance Commission, since it owes its existence to the need for Obama to avoid political blame for the massive tax hikes he needs to fund his nanny-state agenda. Even before they get to that stage, however, they have already proven that government naturally inclines towards unthinking growth and irresponsibility, as the Tax Prof discovered at Tax Analysts: Deficit Reduction Commission Seeks Increase in its Budget....

Congress has allocated $500,000 in operating costs apart from the four full-time employees for the life of the panel, which produces its report on December 1. That is about $50,000 per month to analyze the federal budget and develop proposals for cuts, based on having an unpaid commission full of supposed experts in this field.

This is a microcosm of the very problem that the commission is supposed to fix, and the reaction from Washington pols is priceless for understanding it. The gripe from Harry Reid is that the staffing doesn’t match that of Congressional panels, such as the House Ways and Means Committee. That panel employs 90 staffers and spent over $8 million in FY2009. Ninety staffers equals more than 20% of the entire Congress. Maybe the problem isn’t that the NCFRR doesn’t have enough people, but that Ways and Means spends way beyond our means. In fact, the entire federal government spends way beyond our means, and we can thank the Democrats who added over a trillion dollars in annual federal spending in just three short years for that, increasing the budget by 40% during their control of Congress.

Meanwhile, let’s just savor the irony of a deficit commission that couldn’t get halfway to its goal without running its own deficits.

My comment: Well, I am laughing as well as crying for our nation. What the hell our American elect another dumb president!!

Magic Firework Show on?!!

2010-06-11T00:01:00.002-05:00

Well, good the Bulls has shown up today! However, we are not out of wood yet!! See above chart. Also, we have not seen 2 up market days in a row since beginning of May. We will see. There are 3 different view on following market movement:

1. Short covering rally continues and test 1100-1110!!
2. Short covering rally til hitting the downtrend line and row down again to make new year low(breakdown 1040 on S&P)
3. No more upward movement, market just collapse start tomorrow and breakdown 1040 til 1000-1010 zone!!

By the way, world cup soccer is about begin tomorrow.

Bear Market has came??!

2010-06-09T23:42:00.002-05:00

Are you the Bulls? Well, let see if there any bulls magic play tomorrow??!

Retest Tomorrow?!!

2010-06-07T21:52:00.002-05:00

This moment the Future is showing rebound. However, it is too early to tell if retest will be successful tomorrow. We will see!

Welcome to deflationary!! No more stimulus magic!!

2010-06-07T12:24:00.002-05:00

Lets see the round up from G20 meeting this past weekend(Written by other great blogger):

Merkel and Trichet politely told Geithner to go to hell. Given that Geithner needs to be fired, this is a positive event.
Europe is more concerned about sovereign debt issues than stimulating growth. Only fools like Geither and the IMF would argue against that.
No one paid any attention to Geithner or the Keyenesian clowns at the IMF, most notably, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
There was no agreement on a universal bank levy. A universal tax is the wrong approach to risk management and it punishes banks with good lending practices.
Geithner made a complete fool out of himself.
A dozen cheers for German Chancellor Angela Merkel who said “We can only spend what we receive in income.” Finally Someone gets it

Finally, Europe countries realize that printing money is not going to work to re-generate the gear of our economic growth. However, this does predict we will see another recession is coming for sure!! Good luck to China as well as USA and those foolish people calling our economy is recovering!!

Weekly SPX Technical Chart!!

2010-06-05T15:26:00.002-05:00

Now, it is very clear this coming week is really important test for major stock market!! Since it looks very simliar to other major indexes, once this good support zone broken, there has very high possiblities that it will continue the downtrend. Also, once it really gets breaking down, I will offically call this is new bear market 100%!! Anyway, I always keep my bearish bias since this so called recovery sucker rally since last year!!

Ridiculous Non-Farm Payroll Number & Obama Speech!!

2010-06-05T12:26:00.002-05:00

I will post my technical weekly review of stock market later. However, let's read the following:

A disaster… That is all that can be used to describe (politely) the May jobs data. The unemployment rate came out as an official 9.7%, meeting estimates. But the non-Farm Payrolls data is where this gets messy. The payrolls added 431,000 jobs, which would be a whopper of a number under normal circumstances. The problem is that Dow Jones had a consensus of 515,000 payrolls added. Some were hoping for even north of 550,000 jobs created. And the sad notion is that Uncle Sam accounted for almost all of these gains via temporary Census workers.

April’s reading of 290,000 was left as is. Of all the jobs created, 411,000 temporary workers were effectively added to the census counting. Only 41,000 jobs were created by the private sector.

Part of the breakdown shows that professional and business services rose by 22,000 jobs, and manufacturing added in 29,000 jobs. Construction lost 35,000 jobs in May. Total government employment of local and national workers rose a net 390,000.

Those fortunate enough to have jobs also are not making much more money. Average hourly wages rose by only $0.07 to $22.57.

My comments: Oh, I thought we are in recovery mood. But, sucker report again!! I am laughing to President Obama. Where is our economic recovery? What is the job he keep saying created from? Think again folks. I am so so bearish, period!!

Important Day Tomorrow!!

2010-06-03T22:27:00.002-05:00

Two day ago I said it need at least 200 points up for bulls alive. Then it was, yesterday market did post very positive gain. However, now it comes to very important date. Tomorrow would be key day to decide if Bulls can overcome the 200ma and regain the upper hand!! Watch out tomorrow!

Inverted Hammer again? Very bearish for this week!

2010-06-01T22:18:00.002-05:00

Feel little tired today. Therefore, just simple chart above worth thousand words!! Remember price is more important than volume. It does not look too good. However, last hope defense tomorrow for bulls!!

Investors Intelligence Survey !!

2010-05-28T21:52:00.003-05:00

First of all, I have no credit for the following article. However, it is very good piece of technical or analytical information about stock market trend.

The charts posted below reflect the Investors intelligence survey as of May 25, 2010.

We've been monitoring the Investors Intelligence - Percentage of Bears survey over the last couple of months (chart directly below). At the most recent market top in April 2010, I informed you that the percentage of bears bottomed out at 17 %. This wildly bullish sentiment tipped us off to the market peak in late April.

Notice how the falling channel has broken out with our recent sell off, showing the percentage of bears gradually rising. Also note the divergence that has formed with the market. The market moved to new highs at the end of April 2010, but the percentage of Bears made a higher low. After the right shoulder forms on the S&P 500, we should see the selling resume and the percentage of bears index will begin to rise in a new channel.

This contrarian indicator is further evidence that this entire run-up from the March 2009 has been nothing more than artificially growth spurred by cheap credit (low interest rates), and stimullus money, bailouts, and government (interference ) incentives. This rally really looks like a a 1930s style bear market rally. After the bottom drop out of the stock market in 1929, there was a strong rally for a while, which was very similar to the March 2009 run-up. But once the pseudo rally had concluded, the market got a 82 % haircut. If we are in a similar scenario right now, that would take the Dow below 2000 after all is said and done.

I've made some annotations on the investors intelligence chart (directly below) to show you how this contrarian indicator works.

The next chart is Investors Intelligence's Survey - Percentage Bulls (posted at the end of this article). Just after the stock market topped in late April 2010. The percentage of bulls peaked in early May, as the S&P 500 penetrated through its 60-minute neckline on the Head & Shoulders top pattern. While the stock market began to erode over the debt crisis in Europe, the percentage of bulls began to fall. I now looking for the market to rally and set up a large right shoulder on the S&P 500 daily chart, meanwhile I expect the percentage of bulls index to put in a lower high. This will look very similar to the lower high that occurred after the percentage of bulls index peaked in 2007.

Notice that the this index put in a falling wedge pattern during the sell off and a rising wedge pattern during the 2009-2010 run-up. I fully expect that the index will briefly turn up and produce a lower high in agreement with the stock market. From there, this index should begin to move in a downtrend in contrast to the percentage of bears index, which is already in a new up trend with a higher low and higher high. I fully expect the reading of the percentage of bulls index to rise as the bulls are dubbed into believing that the party is starting again. The rally that should occur over the next couple of weeks in will be nothing more than a contra trend.

Long Term 10 Year T Note Chart!!

2010-05-27T22:00:00.001-05:00

If 10 year t note long term chart does showing a fact in the past, would history repeat again??

Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern is playing on!!

2010-05-27T21:41:00.005-05:00

Not mush to say. Bullish pattern is shown in short term! Good target would be between 1140 to downtrend line area. If the market do have more buyer, it should push breakout the downtrend line in closing basis. However, I expect light volume tomorrow due to holiday on coming Monday.

Re-retest tomorrow?!!

2010-05-26T17:15:00.002-05:00

I may write one more post tonight for it. Worse case happened!! Even Dow did not close down more than 100 points but it does significant hurt. Bears keep ruling!!

Global Slowdown Coming 100%!!

2010-05-25T21:44:00.003-05:00

European Contagion, Korean War Tension, Corporate Bond Sales have slow down significantly, and most important the TED or Libor rate is slowly going higher day by day. They are all facts or excuses that all world markets have started their Bears Hat trick!! I here make an official called"Our global economy is surely slow down and we will see double dip recession at the end of this year or early next year!!" And, let's read the following:

"Larry Summers, the senior economic adviser to President Obama, reportedly asked Congress yesterday to begin drafting plans for a second stimulus package to prevent the economy from suffering a double dip recession. Summers suggested additional loans for small businesses, an extension of unemployment insurance, and financial aid to states to avoid further layoffs in the public education sector."

Here I ask everyone the following: If the economy is recovering, the mortgage market would not be mostly government sponsored. If the economy is recovering as all fools calling, why the hell most states are in budget crisis and keep layoff or cut workers. Also, why do we need second stimulus plan for?? Are we supposed having robust economic recovery in action?? Recover my ass!!

Bullish Reversal Hammer Candle?!!

2010-05-25T21:34:00.004-05:00

It seems market hit a short term bottom by today's price action. Opened the day down as most close to 300 points with breadth -140:1 and closed the session -22 points with -1:1 !! The market is very oversold in short term and has held or tested the support at the 2010 lows. Technically, when we see a daily reversal hammer candle pattern as large or strong like today. It is very likely for us to observe a gap higher open the following session. One plan or good entry point would be wait for market to pullback to fill the gap when enter new long position. However, worst case would be if tomorrow market closed in red more than triple digits(This would be quiet bearish)!!

Market Forecast!!

2010-05-24T22:51:00.003-05:00

Markets are posing undecided position. However, bearish is kinda holding more strength. Unless tomorrow we can see bullish breakout to above 10200-10250 area on DOW. Otherwise, market must need to retest the lows of May again. Even worst, it may pose strong down day tomorrow from the current stock indexe future indicate. Volatility should remain high til summer and get used to see more big swing on intra-day basis from now. Volume now remain high on down weeks and lighter on up weeks. (I am still bearish and market probably go lower before it get bounce as I posted 2 weeks ago, short sellers had came)!!

Retest Successful??!

2010-05-23T21:47:00.003-05:00

Market now has done the retest of May lows!! However, would it retrace the bullish uptrend?! Technically, last time we see all major stock indexes were trading below 200ma was one year ago. We will see.

Euro New Fresh Years Low!!

2010-05-18T21:54:00.004-05:00

Today is another great testing about gap opening! Mostly, traders tend to fade the opening gap on the open of each morning. This means if market gap up, they are looking to sell, and if market gap down they are looking to buy. Knowing we never want to fight the gap fill. But, some days we see gap high and go higher days. Since financial crisis rally from March 2009, we need at least three market action for a open gap and go higher to happen. Opening gap with strong breath in the same direction of the gap, banking stocks are must in the direction of the gap. At last, we need to look to the ticks for confirmation.
Look at today, since market open, all major banks are dropping and filling the gap. Moreover, Euro are trending lower since stock market opens. Although I was not too correct about yesterday action, I did say last week I do remain bearish. Are the 2nd leg down already started??

Market Forecast

2010-05-16T22:41:00.002-05:00

Bullish Monday trading because 19 times out of last 21 weeks were closing in green. Especially the Monday in Option expiry week!! However, at this moment, USD/EUR is getting fresh 18months low and still in downtrend. It may not too bullish friendly to equity market. In addition, Asian markets are mostly down about 2%. One thing can be very sure that we should not surprise volatility is getting higher!!

Recovery in doubt??!

2010-05-13T22:44:00.004-05:00

Why I keep being bearish when almost many economists called US is in the recovery mood? Anyway, are you tired of all "Recovery all" talk?

I recap some of today's new content here so we can share:

""The U.S. posted its largest April budget deficit on record as receipts declined in a month that typically sees an increase in individual income tax payments.

April marked a record 19th straight monthly shortfall, highlighting the challenges facing the Obama administration. Deterioration in the government’s balance sheet in coming years raises the risk of higher interest rates even as an improving economy helps lift tax receipts.

“With the recovery in place, we should be seeing higher revenue and lower outlays, not the other way around,” said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. For the deficit as a share of gross domestic product to decline this year, “we need to see some improvement in coming months,” he said.""

In addition, lets look at these news headline:

"Nearly 40 million Americans received food stamps -- the latest in an ever-higher string of record enrollment that dates from December 2008 and the U.S. recession, according to a government update.

Enrollment has set a record each month since reaching 31.78 million in December 2008. USDA estimates enrollment will average 40.5 million people this fiscal year, which ends Sept 30, at a cost of up to $59 billion. For fiscal 2011, average enrollment is forecast for 43.3 million people."

Hey, stock markets have been bouncing greatly since March 2009. Don't we suppose to mean our economy is in recovery mood??! Ask those who is blind by these solid data figure above? It has been 14 months since market rebound, how come we keep seeing deficit rising, people getting food stamp rising??! I dare to ask our President Obama!!

This is just my point of view about current status of our nation economy. "Recovery?" I do not see it.

Potential Classic Bearish 1-2-3 formation !!

2010-05-13T22:38:00.003-05:00

I probably put important notes on the chart. See if this work out tomorrow or not!

Daily Technical Briefing 5.11.10

2010-05-11T22:15:00.003-05:00

S&P is trading choppy today and so as EUR/USD. However, today market action is very closely to other currency pair which is USD/JPY. If you have time, check in out both in real time tomorrow!! At the end, the SPY(Shown chart here), DIA, QQQQ, and IWM all closed in inverted hammer which is bearish candle!! In addition, almost all hitted top resistance very close to 50day moving average!! As I indicated previous in my blog here, short sellers are watching at all resistance level. Would tomorrow be more confirmed candle pattern happen??!

China is booming?? Think again!!

2010-05-11T13:49:00.004-05:00

The above chart is weekly chart for Shanghai Market Index. If you show any kids, I bet they all tell you it is going down trend. So easy to observe!! They just broke the uptrend line, triangular pattern. They are all bearish pattern. If everyone agree that stock index is leading economic indicator, then what would you say about CHINA!! Once again, think twice if some fools keep telling you China is booming and will not go down economically.
By the way, let me put it here offically. I have said China will get real estate burst similar to us few years ago. China will experience what US did few years ago with Bubble burst with excessive credit and real estate asset price!! Yes, I said it here as of May,2010.

Why California is next Greece!?

2010-05-11T09:44:00.004-05:00

Why were we as Americans so worried about Europe?! Let's focus on our standing soil here, for god sake! Today, New York States are approved to furlough state workers for one day every week started next week to the end of this year. Oh, do anyone know Chicago had been done so since started of 2010. We have lots of states are into similar crisis that Greece had. However, no one in our state senates care about. I mean no one. Not even our people in Washington. It is none of those politicians business. They do not care about us at all. They keep doing their routine work, show up in legislature, budget meetings and collect their own share of salary(Your taxed dollar)! Maybe there few will do. However, if we cannot break up our powerful unions, America is for sure going for doom.

The following are some reasons why California is next Greece!?

1. $20 billion budget gap
2. California is going to shut down 6 major state programs
3. There were already 23,000 teachers received their layoff slips
4. California has lowest S&P rating on credit among our 50 states
5. They spends $500 million just for wild fire damage or damage control
6. They spends almost $900 million on illegal immigrants in jail
7. Seven of most unemployed cities are in California
8. They do not have Federal Bank to print more $$$$...to spend

However, my reside state Illinois is no better than California either. So are New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Florida, Iowa, Ohio,.....etc

SPX weekly technical chart!!

2010-05-10T20:00:00.002-05:00

First of all, market analysis is different to trading analysis. I was caution few weeks ago and have warned markets were too overbought. In fact, there were lot of bearish technical signals. Therefore, I was turning in transition from cautiously bullish to bearish now.
Let's look two charts I create on top!! Market was topped and reached its final goal of this 13 months bullish run at end of April. I explain pretty much of important technical event to be watched. I am now bearish and do attempt to add new short positions as I posted blog last week that "Short sellers are surely coming!!" I am one of the seller crowd. Market probably would be choppy downward from here but with larger volatility.

One Trillion Rescue!! Giant short squeez rally came!! Then, what's next??

2010-05-10T11:53:00.003-05:00

As almost everyone expected, ECB is focred to come up near $1 Trillion US dollar rescue funds for indebted European Countries(Especially for PIGS). In addition, our FED has joined the action and ECB even conduct an interventions in the currecny EURO too. Oh, what a giant global moral Hazard keep rolling bigger and bigger! Oh, that waste of damn $1 Trillion is not creating any job growth in Europe area. It is another form of hand over $$ to troubled european banks, countries, and other entities. Of course, world stock markets have cheered up, especially for european markets. However, it looks to me a bigger short squeezing rally rather than problem solved upward motion. Then,afterward, what's next? Like my previous blog post said, "Short sellers are coming!" In fact, I guess they are here now.
To whoever economists have called we have global recovery, I would like to ask them a question:"If we are in the stage economically like they claimed, how come we need another $1 Trillion in Europe?" What if this kinda baitout plan does not work? Even if this works, who is going to pay for that sucking $1 Trillion dollar bill? There are still too much uncertainty flowing on top of the record dollar amount $1,000,000,000,000 ?!

Laughing at Media post about unemployment rate today!!

2010-05-07T22:03:00.003-05:00

Let's read some today news headline about our nation job market condition on the following:

US Jobs up 290,000, but jobless rate rises to 9.9%!

Companies crank up hiring by most in 4 years, boosting recovery!

Burst of hiring aids recovery!

So on and on...etc.

Come on folks! Yeah! I choose to believe the data(By the way, some are hired because of Census 2010 work which you and I know it is not gonna last more than 3 months of work). Jobs do gained but we need about 6 more million this year alone to fulfill President Obama promise he made last year!! Oh, by the way, what the f#$%!! Look more detail in the job report: Broader U-6 unemployment rate increases to 17.1% in April. Ooops, I thought government posted jobs gained 290,000 in April, what the hell jobless rate rises compare to last time?!
Folks, have most of you heard that our National Department of Education (Obama education cabin chief) told us weeks ago that we very likely need to layoff about 300,000 teaching related jobs in coming school year?! That's only for our nation education system. What about our police force, fireman, hospital workers, socical service workers,.....etc. I do not know what to say. Like every president always like to say the last sentence to the American in public "God Bless America!"

More short sellers are surely coming!!

2010-05-07T11:29:00.003-05:00

I will be laughing out loud to those fools who begin to tell people that the selling is all over. Many fools will likely take this as a good dip buying opportunity. To me I have different opinion, sellers will come near all key resistance points, moving averages, and trendline. We should be seeing lots of short traders/investors waiting for the next rally to occur. Some shorts that will want to take a position close to resistance, other short sellers that want to add to their current short lists, many folks who longs that want to get out of a violent market.
Market sentiment has turned into bearish now. We should be expecting to see lots of short sellers coming into the field after every rally from now on. Market hate uncertainty and hell now we do have lots of damn reason. Please remember this, political always have more effect than economical events. Today, there has rumor that ECB will lauch some plan similar to what FED had done over year ago to calm European banks worried. Currently, turmoil has shaken every banks in Europe. They do not trust each other and post liquidity problem very similar to US couple years ago. Would any good news coming out of Europe this weekend?? We will see.

Amazing record intraday 998.50 point drop on Dow Jone!!

2010-05-06T20:57:00.004-05:00

What a sell off day!! It has been awhile since Lehman's event. However, all media blame on Greece.
Come on! If you believe this one, you can stop here. "Stock plunge on concerns over Greece"...This story itself reported nothing new. It has been around us for over even weeks and months. Everyone on this world have known what is happening and its relevant to financial crisis. Look at the above chart, it has already broken to downtrend since this Tuesday. The market itself has already told us to be defensive. I am not surprised about today is a big down day. I am surprised about the intra-day magnitude that swing almost 1000 points on Dow Jones Index. Yes, I am bearish. I have told to many people 3 weeks ago already. Good luck to you want to buy long term here and pick your so called good quality stocks!!
By the way, beside the technical pattern. Before market start panic selling sometime in afternoon, if you go see USD/JPY & EUR/USD, the both currency pair have told us something going on before market dive. Like I post it yesterday, market seems follow closely on EUR/USD lately. One more point I would like to emphasis here, for past historical data, VIX index has jumped over 40% during one day, it indicates today's low very likely will be retested on coming 10 to 20 days. Beside this data, I think the chart does tell me this for sure by now!

S&P hit my target key support area!!

2010-05-06T13:17:00.003-05:00

This is my very recent key support for S&P 1139-1145. However, the EUR is falling like a very sharp knife. Not sure if we can keep this as good support. Watch out! Next very solid support for EUR would be 1.2500s. Now, it is trading 1.2600s... Report end at this moment!

One of well-known Market Stragtist 100% cash as of 5/5/2010!!

2010-05-06T09:22:00.002-05:00

I have very high respect to this Market Strategist. Here are his reasoning:

1) Greece/EU had nothing to do with our tactical rebalancing.

2) This was strictly a technical call — market internals, sentiment, duration of rally, volume were amongst the factors that came in.

3) This is not an end of primary trend expectation — rather, it is looking at the potential of a secondary trend.

4) Ideally, if we get lucky, we will see a rally over the next week, with deteriorating characteristics — that sets up a better entry for shorting new positions.

5) We had a very good Q1 with a handful of strong positions — EK, MGM NYT, THOR, C — so some of the thinking behind our move was locking in a profitable 1st half of the year. We can now look be very selective in identifying trading opportunities.

6) We are now concentrating on screening and identifying new short ideas . . .

Well, I have my opinion 3 weeks ago to have very high alert about market is forming toppy formation. It is better to hedge or not fully using our ammo now

Short Term Bottom?!!

2010-05-05T21:58:00.002-05:00

Look like Japanese Candlestick pattern tells me that market very possible reach short term bottom. I am expecting we will see market rebound mildly tomorrow. However, I am very sure that we will see second leg down afterward. It is now better not fully expose your ammo out there in the market. Hint: It seems market is running very close to EUR/USD from looking at their charts together.

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2010-05-05T21:37:00.000-05:00

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